MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x619517454a4789c3bf764bba32b356c836b32992c0c73562e02fc58693fe6915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 4,974$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.61 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 69c | 4,077$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 3,680$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,296.7 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2887…a552backed Under | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 2,521$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.37 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 60c | 2,116$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.71 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 33c | 1,409$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.91 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 30c | 1,170$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.49 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 759.65$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.43 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 63c | 562.84$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.74 | 269 | 62.1%167 W · 102 L | +44.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 32c | 551.89$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.38 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…09ddbacked Under | 38c | 514.84$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.66 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 432.8$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.38 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 309.02$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.9 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 38c | 230.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Over | 39c | 219.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.74 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 217.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.39 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 48c | 207.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Over | 51c | 188.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 67c | 185$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 67c | 154.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 76c | 144.45$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 36c | 142$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 67c | 115.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 48c | 107.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 33c | 98.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 53c | 96.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 22c | 95.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 30c | 69.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Under | 62c | 67.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 45c | 56.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 53c | 48.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 48c | 40.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…bdbebacked Under | 54c | 33.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 31.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Under | 52c | 28.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 44c | 26.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 23.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 51c | 21.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a0…e8fcbacked Under | 61c | 19.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Under | 72c | 14.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.