MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f0d9d6b54b6fc79ee177e97f5d43e511ac88b24c095ebd8c0b276cfdc85d29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 15,924$7,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,762.35 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 52c | 12,000$6,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,818.31 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Over | 70c | 5,666$3,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.08 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 33c | 5,007$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 30c | 3,821$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.35 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 3,312$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 67c | 2,569$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 48c | 1,533$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 30c | 846.44$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 815.67$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 741.56$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 70c | 716.03$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.86 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 706.89$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 30c | 523.77$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.13 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 67c | 420$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Under | 32c | 400$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 53c | 342.87$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 36c | 221.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 30c | 200.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 26c | 192.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 69c | 164.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 68c | 119.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 37c | 101.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 31c | 101.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 71c | 80.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9d…77debacked Under | 48c | 77.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 69c | 69.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 49c | 61.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 70c | 60.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 55c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 61c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 937 | 73.5%689 W · 248 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.