MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f806c530dcf1e3e35ae70d566ac3bd8c007220b1077fbe7f146ef96709eb3b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 15,009$5,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,703.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 10,687$6,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,061.12 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 8,621$5,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,275.95 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 6,713$2,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,762.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 5,453$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 3,743$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.34 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 16c | 2,860$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 1,669$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 1,266$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 1,152$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 713.48$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.1 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 419.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.39 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 340.8$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 334.44$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.82 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 315.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 268.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 229.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked San Francisco Giants | 13c | 224.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 204.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 192.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 182.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 144.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 132.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Washington Nationals | 72c | 109.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 107.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 105.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 102.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 97.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 87.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 374 | 51.3%192 W · 182 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 81.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 77.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants | 20c | 74.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 61.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 80c | 59.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 56.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 53.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3067…a44cbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 51.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 50.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 36.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 33.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 30.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 28.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 18.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.