MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32624cd94a97df4e54713f5d657c283c3ecada60409c316b177019630eddfe1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 745.16$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 658.5$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.75 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 431.5$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.56 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 431.21$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.16 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 389.82$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 193.69$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 189.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 128.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 114$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked San Francisco Giants | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 86.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 71.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 52.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 50.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 49.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 48.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 47.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 43.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 29.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 21.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 21.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…e16cbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 20.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.