Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac88cfc6c70904c9da973654a948189c6bcc34ce2e0df8f726f4bdcbb25eb0f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,250$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 739.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 3c | 699.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 3c | 667.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 35c | 540.6$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.62 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 5c | 378.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 273.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 249.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.46 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 239.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 6c | 201.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 189.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 182.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 54c | 180.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 174.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 168.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 164.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 9c | 152.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 16c | 148.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 39c | 147.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 68c | 126.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 16c | 122.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 67c | 108.42$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…e23cbacked No | 66c | 99.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 48c | 97.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 90.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 87.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 70c | 84.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 76.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 80c | 72.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 51c | 65.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 17c | 60.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 80c | 59.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 21c | 53.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 46c | 47.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 65c | 44.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 68c | 35.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 35.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fc…ad1ebacked No | 46c | 34.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 69c | 28.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 77c | 27.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 26.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 26.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed No | 64c | 22.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 79c | 18.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…a640backed No | 65c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 78c | 17.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 14.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.