Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e6a16ab3addefb0bb724a8d0085752b134c382cf65bed4c5611b812d70184d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3a5…e23cbacked Yes | 9c | 994.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 76c | 598.57$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.89 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 519.65$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.07 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 487.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 409.1$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 63c | 353.18$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 318.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 34c | 274.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed Yes | 22c | 274$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 259.37$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 79c | 213.84$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 211.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 22c | 202.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 199.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 184.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 175.13$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 158.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 148.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…758ebacked Yes | 17c | 145.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 24c | 144.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 136.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 133.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 131.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 31c | 129.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 74c | 128.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 40c | 124.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed Yes | 10c | 124.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 71c | 123.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 19c | 122.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…8169backed Yes | 26c | 120.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 119.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 117.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 116.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 106.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 106.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 104.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 33c | 101.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 100.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 76c | 98.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 25c | 96.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 39c | 95.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 19c | 95.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 18c | 94.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 94.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 91.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 21c | 86.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Yes | 27c | 84.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 83.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 78c | 79.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…9744backed Yes | 21c | 75.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 74.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 26c | 70.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 27c | 69.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 67.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 23c | 64.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 61.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 77c | 60.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 79c | 55.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 52.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 27c | 51.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…cdf5backed Yes | 26c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ef…c83ebacked No | 79c | 49.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 71c | 49.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 49.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…9bf5backed Yes | 25c | 48.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked Yes | 25c | 47.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 32c | 44.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…62a5backed No | 76c | 44.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 73c | 43.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 23c | 43.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 31c | 42.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 72c | 40.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 39.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 35c | 39.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 39.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 27c | 38.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 77c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 31c | 37.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 41c | 31.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 72c | 30.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 29.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 36c | 29.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…fc8ebacked No | 69c | 27.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 41c | 27.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 75c | 27.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.