Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac8b714a4855afc58c8d9471d7ca528bdfb3f7c55dd9c0c34c9a55b3d0453674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 71c | 1,287$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.59 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 3c | 700.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 385.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 4c | 380$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…a731backed Yes | 28c | 359.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 308.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 37c | 271.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 194.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…522dbacked Yes | 37c | 184.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…37c5backed Yes | 41c | 178.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 35c | 154.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 151.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 136.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 133.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 129$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 125.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 119.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 114.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 48c | 99.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 59c | 94.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 94.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 93.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Yes | 76c | 91.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 87.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 28c | 87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 86.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 82.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 49c | 82.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 77.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 75.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 26c | 74.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 72c | 69.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 64.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9b7dbacked Yes | 74c | 59.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 58.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 30c | 53.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 43c | 53.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 50.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 49.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 58c | 46.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 46.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 28c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 52c | 41.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 52c | 41.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 51c | 41.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 39.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…0855backed Yes | 53c | 39.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 34.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4784…2f0cbacked Yes | 74c | 33.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…5c65backed No | 72c | 29.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 72c | 27.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 25.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…0d55backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 48c | 21.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 17.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…5368backed No | 75c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.