Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacbd8dcfac5d89a9e065346b30ef3b9863c3f0f6f3d773b254a7bfa0fbe1468c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 14c | 3,160$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.15 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 48c | 2,509$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.57 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…d061backed Down | 59c | 2,477$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.26 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 38c | 2,115$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.58 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Up | 37c | 2,100$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Down | 67c | 2,047$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.49 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 50c | 1,847$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.68 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Down | 6c | 1,786$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…9374backed Down | 61c | 1,700$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 15c | 1,612$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.83 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 42c | 1,566$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.41 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Down | 34c | 1,500$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.32 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 77c | 1,044$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.27 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Down | 47c | 1,025$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Down | 13c | 815.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…df97backed Down | 44c | 805$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 39c | 799.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cea…a3e7backed Up | 36c | 769.15$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Up | 67c | 739.99$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.8 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Up | 42c | 738.22$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.55 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 27c | 697.58$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.83 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Up | 44c | 636.57$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Up | 35c | 634.54$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.45 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 51c | 600$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Up | 37c | 537.98$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.98 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Down | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Down | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Up | 56c | 435.64$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed Up | 52c | 415.77$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…0b45backed Down | 51c | 400$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d13…f6cbbacked Up | 43c | 400$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 25c | 387.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Down | 57c | 366.16$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…ee4dbacked Down | 51c | 356.69$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…c07ebacked Up | 72c | 289.6$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Up | 42c | 263.16$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Down | 40c | 250.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…66fdbacked Down | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Up | 40c | 240$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…9b72backed Down | 41c | 220.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…11b5backed Up | 34c | 210$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Down | 52c | 209.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 41c | 203$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Down | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Up | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Up | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…044cbacked Up | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 40c | 189.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Up | 57c | 186.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…1177backed Up | 74c | 154.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed Down | 57c | 153.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Up | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…0a46backed Up | 70c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Down | 67c | 106.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Up | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…92afbacked Up | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 73c | 76.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 36c | 68.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Down | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…aec5backed Down | 53c | 56.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…219dbacked Up | 49c | 50.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…f4f5backed Down | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Up | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7f…cc9bbacked Up | 58c | 34.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed Down | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…e141backed Down | 66c | 22.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Up | 61c | 20.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…600fbacked Up | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Up | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -14.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Up | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.