Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Denis Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacc3a697aa5664010781c91659224b55e8dced7e1ffb4a0ad039ff635e488bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $319,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25a7…2f87backed Shapovalov | 10c | 123,813$12,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,759.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…b5a8backed Shapovalov | 7c | 26,040$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.48 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Shapovalov | 3c | 16,387$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.62 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Shapovalov | 1c | 9,587$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Shapovalov | 9c | 6,718$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.86 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Shapovalov | 10c | 5,393$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.64 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Shapovalov | 8c | 3,931$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Shapovalov | 21c | 3,780$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.65 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Shapovalov | 2c | 3,031$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c92…1b05backed Sinner | 78c | 2,900$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Shapovalov | 22c | 2,843$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.49 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae27…3e49backed Shapovalov | 8c | 2,303$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…8b16backed Sinner | 76c | 2,300$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Shapovalov | 24c | 2,203$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.74 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Shapovalov | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Shapovalov | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Shapovalov | 2c | 1,842$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Shapovalov | 2c | 1,812$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Shapovalov | 11c | 1,387$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.94 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Shapovalov | 10c | 1,330$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Shapovalov | 7c | 1,290$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Shapovalov | 20c | 1,172$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…930abacked Shapovalov | 18c | 1,110$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Shapovalov | 24c | 990.75$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.92 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dab…4522backed Shapovalov | 9c | 954.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Shapovalov | 4c | 690.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Shapovalov | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…786ebacked Shapovalov | 10c | 532.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Shapovalov | 14c | 504.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Shapovalov | 15c | 479.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Shapovalov | 23c | 422.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Shapovalov | 15c | 337.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Shapovalov | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…90babacked Shapovalov | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Shapovalov | 13c | 269.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Shapovalov | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Shapovalov | 21c | 260.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Sinner | 73c | 257$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b713backed Shapovalov | 8c | 212.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Shapovalov | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Shapovalov | 6c | 185$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Shapovalov | 18c | 154.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…d663backed Shapovalov | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Shapovalov | 12c | 120.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Shapovalov | 15c | 104.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…4ea3backed Shapovalov | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…3250backed Sinner | 77c | 72.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…120ebacked Shapovalov | 29c | 67.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Sinner | 76c | 65.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…1e7bbacked Shapovalov | 19c | 56.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Sinner | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.