TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Natus Vincere53c17,945$9,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,363.0454556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere50c9,451$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,750.9251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Nigma Galaxy50c5,723$2,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,836.1927153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Nigma Galaxy49c3,188$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.4656955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Nigma Galaxy48c2,993$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.6129348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Nigma Galaxy10c2,800$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28511836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Nigma Galaxy48c2,565$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.9435951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere63c2,366$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.782,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Nigma Galaxy51c2,246$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.5525248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Nigma Galaxy47c2,190$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.633541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere69c2,085$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.8479959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Nigma Galaxy52c1,942$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.7580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Nigma Galaxy52c1,880$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.9839042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere69c1,818$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.41,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Nigma Galaxy31c1,806$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.7855147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Nigma Galaxy11c1,747$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.365749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy52c1,574$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.751,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Nigma Galaxy49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73519742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Natus Vincere50c1,009$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.3244645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Natus Vincere50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50033644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Nigma Galaxy49c988.64$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.4424153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Nigma Galaxy50c921.53$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.1741351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere58c910.54$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.181,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Natus Vincere54c893.81$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.4911742.7%50 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Nigma Galaxy51c863.8$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.5449455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Nigma Galaxy5c848.45$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.266132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Natus Vincere50c820.16$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.3988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nigma Galaxy40c818.32$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2867043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed Natus Vincere57c691.79$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.562751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Nigma Galaxy23c563.69$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.721,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Nigma Galaxy50c563.28$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.1453844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd459…4757backed Nigma Galaxy47c561$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.673748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed Nigma Galaxy52c560.98$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.3521062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere56c557.85$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.221,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere58c545.23$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.821,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed Nigma Galaxy50c540.64$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.59158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy24c535.94$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.272,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Nigma Galaxy30c512.5$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9219145.5%87 W · 104 L+13.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Nigma Galaxy39c496.52$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6446240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Natus Vincere57c454.66$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5245046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Nigma Galaxy49c413.39$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8517954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy30c411.46$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.712,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Nigma Galaxy50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Nigma Galaxy51c399.4$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6918156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Natus Vincere56c398.75$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.846451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Nigma Galaxy45c374.15$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.365441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Nigma Galaxy27c345.27$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3452649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nigma Galaxy40c336.13$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Nigma Galaxy43c327.68$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.937745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked Nigma Galaxy29c317.02$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4819951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Nigma Galaxy46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13873743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c52…677dbacked Nigma Galaxy23c269.55$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628746%40 W · 47 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Nigma Galaxy50c253.77$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.761850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5905…a34cbacked Natus Vincere80c219$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.81926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-51.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Nigma Galaxy24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4845052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Nigma Galaxy11c198.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5879343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Nigma Galaxy50c196.76$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.387835.9%28 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Nigma Galaxy47c193.62$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6521045.7%96 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Nigma Galaxy45c193.27$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nigma Galaxy46c188.65$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.81,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Nigma Galaxy8c178.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1759556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Natus Vincere52c171.91$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2830041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Natus Vincere54c166.39$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5413152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…13f4backed Natus Vincere49c148.38$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.671266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+36.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked Nigma Galaxy37c142.87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.120151.2%103 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed Nigma Galaxy17c127.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.667448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0374549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Natus Vincere65c108.77$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.246872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f9e…10c8backed Nigma Galaxy20c108.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.717149.3%35 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Nigma Galaxy29c101.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Nigma Galaxy45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4563032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy21c97.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7564123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Nigma Galaxy50c96.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0140745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa8…6e47backed Natus Vincere49c96.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.442365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy23c95.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.941,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Nigma Galaxy30c91.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.183237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Natus Vincere62c84.9$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.231,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Natus Vincere50c83.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Nigma Galaxy48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.11566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea29…0fc5backed Nigma Galaxy51c76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.561163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy22c64.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.386451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy36c57.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.421,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Natus Vincere72c54.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.395950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Nigma Galaxy29c51.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5624518.8%46 W · 199 L-31.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Nigma Galaxy51c47.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2722868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Natus Vincere71c46.83$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.585251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Natus Vincere49c44.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7412255.7%68 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Natus Vincere59c42.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.667555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Nigma Galaxy46c40.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5360660.7%368 W · 238 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Nigma Galaxy49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.658152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddbe…0b07backed Nigma Galaxy53c37.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.531353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8f3…12a9backed Natus Vincere56c36.94$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2611739.3%46 W · 71 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a3e…1316backed Natus Vincere61c31.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.162544%11 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e8a…4e10backed Nigma Galaxy50c30.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Natus Vincere49c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.793250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Natus Vincere71c27.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.036555.4%36 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Natus Vincere51c26.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0425253.2%134 W · 118 L+20.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Natus Vincere54c22.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.417448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.