Mls · resolved market
Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae38ff4eefd17d6f410ebe24e047daad3ef88f6c177e4f172972753ba476b39d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 22c | 2,943$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.41 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 2,639$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.92 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 12c | 1,137$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 10c | 797.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 24c | 595.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 71c | 538.03$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 15c | 450.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 18c | 411$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 71c | 395.32$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 27c | 327.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 78c | 279.1$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 30c | 233.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 60c | 230$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 206$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 20c | 175.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 15c | 138$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 20c | 126.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 73c | 112$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 39c | 101$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 73c | 93.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 76c | 89.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 73c | 86.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Over | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 24c | 70.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 76c | 58.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…b109backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 70cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…3d44backed Over | 41c | 44.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 21.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5)Charlotte FC won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Spread: Charlotte FC (-2.5)Atlanta United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.