TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: VARREL vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ZETA DIVISIONof VARREL, ZETA DIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee8e…0a7bbacked VARREL63c15,359$9,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,663.5778162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked VARREL60c15,000$8,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,998.2428955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed ZETA DIVISION36c10,856$3,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,947.7554751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…0b30backed ZETA DIVISION40c5,119$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,071.44580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick34cpaid+133%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked ZETA DIVISION37c3,657$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.6833153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked ZETA DIVISION72c3,120$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.5312155.4%67 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed ZETA DIVISION37c3,058$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.4124946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed ZETA DIVISION39c2,800$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.9920840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed ZETA DIVISION37c2,100$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32341734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66fe…2d87backed ZETA DIVISION37c2,008$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed ZETA DIVISION40c1,700$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.43per pick37cpaid+120.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed ZETA DIVISION40c1,600$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9607655.3%42 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed VARREL64c1,516$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.4811255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed ZETA DIVISION36c1,510$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.6441537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed ZETA DIVISION37c1,100$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6936737.3%25 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed VARREL54c1,093$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.445250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ba…fea3backed ZETA DIVISION40c1,087$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8227…0bccbacked VARREL53c1,068$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.133551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d79…3856backed ZETA DIVISION40c1,028$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed ZETA DIVISION40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98d5…b5a4backed VARREL65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed ZETA DIVISION44c999.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.998638.4%33 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed ZETA DIVISION49c985.28$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.1840944.3%181 W · 228 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked ZETA DIVISION37c979.52$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.124846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ZETA DIVISION52c885$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.4670043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea1…d143backed ZETA DIVISION54c838.95$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.882676.9%20 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e8b…b80ebacked ZETA DIVISION27c768.54$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.27837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9a…58fcbacked ZETA DIVISION40c768.31$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed VARREL17c762.14$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7160022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed VARREL24c709.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.49737.1%36 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf9f…30b1backed ZETA DIVISION40c704.55$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed VARREL54c650.93$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.361,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed VARREL37c616.46$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.6613225%33 W · 99 L-18.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x02c8…72d0backed ZETA DIVISION40c600$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed VARREL38c555.2$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked ZETA DIVISION49c553.99$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2530835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8df…4b48backed ZETA DIVISION37c540$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.21656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed VARREL53c529.98$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.8914645.2%66 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VARREL71c527.64$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.171,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked VARREL38c518.03$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.021,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked ZETA DIVISION47c512.47$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.9321048.1%101 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed ZETA DIVISION37c509.63$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.0715553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44d3…e454backed ZETA DIVISION67c507.92$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.125263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb803…0fdfbacked ZETA DIVISION40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x960a…4a11backed ZETA DIVISION40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57bf…85bdbacked ZETA DIVISION40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed ZETA DIVISION40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3003633.3%12 W · 24 L-6.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked ZETA DIVISION37c479.52$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.16338.1%24 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed ZETA DIVISION49c466.39$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.9717448.3%84 W · 90 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked ZETA DIVISION34c464.4$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.274641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11b4…7e7bbacked VARREL59c457.14$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2693351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed ZETA DIVISION44c453.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.1934857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed ZETA DIVISION52c447.86$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.2342540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed VARREL68c436.51$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6922047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd9…ea45backed ZETA DIVISION37c405.4$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked VARREL53c394.9$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4815833.5%53 W · 105 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd037…5ea2backed VARREL59c389.83$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2303447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked VARREL65c385.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.276852.9%36 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked VARREL56c360.93$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7588844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed VARREL23c324.1$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6246326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e48…f025backed VARREL78c320.16$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502254.5%12 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick71cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed VARREL61c313$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3262156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde1d…c645backed ZETA DIVISION45c311.11$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.112138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed VARREL45c304.61$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9221257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed VARREL43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7914447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked VARREL59c299.99$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-71.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed ZETA DIVISION39c289.74$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.2627956.6%158 W · 121 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed ZETA DIVISION43c276.74$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7414941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x310b…19ccbacked ZETA DIVISION42c270.61$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.712070%14 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.25per pick45cpaid+67.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe807…307cbacked ZETA DIVISION37c270$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked VARREL48c254$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.489238%35 W · 57 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked ZETA DIVISION38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15516639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed ZETA DIVISION47c240.47$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.4517557.1%100 W · 75 L+15.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked VARREL46c235$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0815334.6%53 W · 100 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ff6…d07ebacked VARREL43c234.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.271258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e2abbacked ZETA DIVISION37c228.35$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.866048.3%29 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed ZETA DIVISION32c210$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.818143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed ZETA DIVISION37c208.7$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4816046.9%75 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked ZETA DIVISION35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13011232.1%36 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x074b…65f9backed ZETA DIVISION22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1563218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed VARREL63c189.09$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12034253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed VARREL50c184$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.187433.8%25 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed ZETA DIVISION55c183.5$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2926634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked VARREL49c180.03$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2355637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed ZETA DIVISION37c162.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.162842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe9f…8e23backed ZETA DIVISION38c156.72$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.472657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked ZETA DIVISION75c153.82$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.135142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed VARREL56c151.48$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6732261.5%198 W · 124 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6851…42d8backed VARREL63c151.3$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked ZETA DIVISION23c143.18$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.24949%24 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked ZETA DIVISION35c136.01$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6512147.1%57 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5489…1633backed ZETA DIVISION37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.146533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked VARREL48c124$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.551,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked VARREL64c121.14$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.537365.8%48 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed VARREL64c115.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.236048.3%29 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe56a…2ba5backed ZETA DIVISION37c113.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.513930.8%12 W · 27 L-7.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed VARREL54c104.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…279bbacked ZETA DIVISION42c101.33$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3310552.4%55 W · 50 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ZETA DIVISION58c101$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.341,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e5b…0324backed ZETA DIVISION37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6312151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.