MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae854df58232c38d250a07a9dfb3784cbef811f9b780cf4aff3281353ddc6237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 10,295$3,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,609.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 6,425$4,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,378.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 3,417$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 1,356$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 1,078$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.27 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 981.04$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 922.64$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.09 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 511.78$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.83 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 502.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 480$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 475$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.05 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 416.67$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 326$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.34 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 285.05$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 225.64$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 169.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 160.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 113.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 104.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 86.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 83.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 80.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 74.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 57.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 57.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 53.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 51.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 47.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 45.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 38.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 38.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 37.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 36.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 35.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 31.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.