Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaec2bd3153b5d1dc0a596dfd0bcf87ec4c7e111725977bc87d767f2817c1cd2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,062$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.09 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 941.73$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 80c | 500.24$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 292$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 57c | 223.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 221$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 200.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 67c | 169.12$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 151.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 73c | 149.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 136$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 134.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 36c | 130.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 70c | 128.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 41c | 102.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 101.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 94.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 55c | 76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 63.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 54c | 63.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 62.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 61.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 44c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 45.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b08…2086backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 41c | 40.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 44c | 37.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 37.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 35.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 42c | 30.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 51c | 30.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 26.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 57c | 24.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 62c | 22.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 77c | 20.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…27fabacked No | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.