Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed6f46a064cf99a7bfaac7128b57a577c370f36fdb9de3afb5f25b2628434c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 1,054$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 655.2$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 604.88$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.87 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 409$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 356.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 315.8$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 308.78$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 240.69$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 223.21$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 159.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 58c | 151.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 141.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 72c | 138.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 130.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 102.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 26c | 100.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 18c | 97.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 19c | 97.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 92.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 45c | 88.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 85.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 83.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 76.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 76.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 67.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 63.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 53c | 60.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 42c | 59.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 77c | 53.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 47.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 45.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 41.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 26c | 41.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed No | 46c | 38.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 36.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 33.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 62c | 33.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 30.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 24.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 23.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 45c | 23.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 20.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 18.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 79c | 17.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.