Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd36ea81779614d1b1c8cc54a55f8a88065ef0dab80cb711c1c361829b29e2bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 54c | 1,550$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.29 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 791.73$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.74 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 416$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 414$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 45c | 359.82$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.32 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 318.09$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 248.19$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 204.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 199.67$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 60c | 174.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 159.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 39c | 146.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 130.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 45c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 124.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 119.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 114.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 113.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 109.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 46c | 103.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…43c1backed Yes | 46c | 102.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 49c | 100.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…f6d2backed Yes | 46c | 99.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 97.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 96.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 79.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 75.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 65c | 70.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 58.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 46c | 58.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 51.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 43.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 42c | 43.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 41.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…403cbacked No | 48c | 38.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 38.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 36.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 36.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 49c | 34.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 30.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 55c | 30.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 50c | 29.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 28.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…7dfabacked Yes | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes | 42c | 27.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 26.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 65c | 26.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 50c | 24.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 49c | 23.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 50c | 23.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 53c | 23.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 46c | 21.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 68c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 49c | 20.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 20.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 56c | 18.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 71c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 76c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.