Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf158f64f6599f8bc09eb909f3cb9a6fc52963009653425668e20e97c5060b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 1,012$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 257.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 203.59$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 196$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 190.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 189.11$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.92$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed Yes | 33c | 135.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 134.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 118$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 116$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 110.09$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 37c | 103.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 38c | 101.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 91.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 23c | 84.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 75c | 84.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 19c | 79.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 75.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 72c | 75.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 75.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 27c | 72.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 22c | 66.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 79c | 63.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 61.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 26c | 60.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 60.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 54.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 20c | 52.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 49.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 38c | 44.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 40.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 63c | 30.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 28.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 79c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.