Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4972ad50efcecc9911fddc04da4f4f7379335645b899a66996a056ea5981512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 49c | 3,387$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.9 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 453.78$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 57c | 428$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 385.31$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 358.61$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.86 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 286.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 286$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.18 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 279$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 265.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 241.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 195.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 194.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 191.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 11c | 160.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 122.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 118$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 118$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 58c | 116$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 115.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 108.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7f…7620backed No | 13c | 102.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 99.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 95.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 95.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 52c | 83.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 82.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 79.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 74.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 22c | 66.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 66.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 30c | 63.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 53c | 63.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 62.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 51c | 59.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 44c | 58.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 58c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 57.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 60c | 56.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 52c | 53.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 77c | 52.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 50.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…c42fbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 52c | 49.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 56c | 47.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…10edbacked Yes | 54c | 46.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 54c | 45.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 45.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…5dc9backed No | 43c | 44.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 51c | 40.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 67c | 39.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 35.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 55c | 35.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 43c | 34.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 55c | 34.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 33.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 52c | 31.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 31.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…b706backed No | 43c | 30.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes | 49c | 30.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 30.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 48c | 29.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 53c | 28.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 53c | 27.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 27.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.