Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf30cd140f4498e787f7e288055e0d9c29ec1afe99c13f7e4808c61ac0820ac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cce…8c59backed Yes | 2c | 6,165$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…d184backed Yes | 1c | 1,839$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 1c | 1,320$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 486.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 414.22$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 365.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 326.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 63c | 319.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 246.59$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 241.3$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 241.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 72c | 236.57$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 223.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.84 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 212$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 50c | 190.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 180.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 13c | 169.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 59c | 168.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 45c | 157.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 71c | 136.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 29c | 135.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…601ebacked Yes | 22c | 132.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 41c | 116$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 15c | 111.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 14c | 107.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 60c | 102.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 54c | 99.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 98.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 94.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 19c | 91.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 82.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 80c | 82.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 20c | 80.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 44c | 79.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 69.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 17c | 68.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 20c | 66.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 64.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 63.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 59c | 58.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 20c | 56.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 74c | 56.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…d845backed Yes | 41c | 54.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 51.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 60c | 50.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 46.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 27c | 40.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 58c | 37.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 33c | 33.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 43c | 33.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 47c | 31.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d98cbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 75c | 24.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 69c | 23.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9a…d0d3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 79c | 17.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 64c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 80c | 14.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.