Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba76c258e50cf29e076e343b5e200e86a9bc094551f95e67e49c216c29d28ae7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 651.65$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.69 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 601.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 280.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 235.74$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 7c | 226.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 35c | 213.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 206$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 199.3$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 192.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 180.23$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 149.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 72c | 137.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 127.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 17c | 114.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 113.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 12c | 111.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 70c | 103.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 98.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 97.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 91.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 89.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 84.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 66c | 82.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 65c | 80.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 80.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…a8b8backed No | 64c | 77.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 69.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 68.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 63c | 62.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 37c | 60.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…3268backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 49.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 47.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 74c | 42.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 31c | 40.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 73c | 36.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…7899backed No | 74c | 33.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 33.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 77c | 32.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…8588backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fe…16e4backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 26.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 76c | 26.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 25.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 24.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 24.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 80c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 22.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 63c | 20.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 62c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 62c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 74c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 13.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.