TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,041
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,041 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec86…60e4backed Yes42c622.63$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.861,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes43c560.6$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.784,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed No61c399.99$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7314236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes54c274.26$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.165,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No30c266.95$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.0129751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c264.93$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No62c234.02$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0976755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes52c222.08$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.91,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes35c215.08$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c215$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.551,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No53c165.92$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No37c164.58$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0171823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c164.2$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.153,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes75c158.24$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11965749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes36c155.85$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.112,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No64c155.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1113755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c154$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.772,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes44c150.22$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cce…8c59backed Yes69c145.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x904c…4172backed No28c131.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.513850%19 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No58c130.59$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.533,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.92,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c124.83$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.688,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c122$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.814,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c113.9$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.255,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes29c111.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.461,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes29c111.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.269017.8%16 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No73c110.15$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.237942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed Yes30c107.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4611019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c7…f7a7backed Yes77c103.76$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5a…bc49backed No19c101.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.965549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4429953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No22c98.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.861,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No57c95.31$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3310757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes46c87.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c86.26$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No56c82.63$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.141,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes30c76.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No59c76.44$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1733450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No64c72.68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4557264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7975…f4a2backed Yes42c70.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-45.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No66c69.77$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.611,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No56c64.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4e…f700backed No27c62.19$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.362560%15 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes64c60.26$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.033,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes43c56.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc09…467fbacked No32c55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.46949.3%34 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes28c52.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes45c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3234934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…3268backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes26c49.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.311,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes36c44.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c44.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8183360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No48c43.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.72,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes44c41.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9826344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed No55c41.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4613751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes34c40.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.486731.3%21 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No56c40.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.577,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.428649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c39.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.593,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a20…7899backed No64c39.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.22933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68e…a093backed Yes43c34.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159530.5%29 W · 66 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked No58c34.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6312955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes65c33.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No57c32.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.982,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c30.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.464,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb040…ef71backed No57c30.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.311362.8%71 W · 42 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed Yes40c30.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2432872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea43…13babacked Yes58c30.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.651136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe25a…31c4backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.64757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.620358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c29.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.793,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No75c29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.121,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa65…18a8backed No55c28.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.958063.8%51 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes36c27.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.062,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd0b…ad9ebacked Yes44c27.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No68c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.254,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.730565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7603…2276backed No63c23.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8314674.7%109 W · 37 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2194…bec0backed Yes45c23.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No59c22.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0382562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes57c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No52c21.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4993734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No65c20.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.052,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No54c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.220852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes80c19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1be…fa77backed No71c18.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.231172.7%8 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick75cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No64c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.482,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No57c17.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8312758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No69c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.271,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c14.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.194,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.