Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaeabb84d65816c6a1b311a0e24ef0cc5fbf000961a08ef0f18b64f5e240e0c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 42c | 622.63$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.86 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 560.6$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 61c | 399.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 274.26$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 30c | 266.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.01 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 264.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 62c | 234.02$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 222.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 35c | 215.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 215$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 165.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 37c | 164.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 164.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 75c | 158.24$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 155.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 155.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 154$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 150.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…8c59backed Yes | 69c | 145.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 28c | 131.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 130.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 124.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 122$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 113.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 29c | 111.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 29c | 111.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 73c | 110.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 30c | 107.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…f7a7backed Yes | 77c | 103.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 19c | 101.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 22c | 98.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 57c | 95.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 46c | 87.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 86.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 82.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 30c | 76.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 59c | 76.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 72.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…f4a2backed Yes | 42c | 70.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 69.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 64.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 27c | 62.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 60.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 43c | 56.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 52.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…3268backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 26c | 49.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 44.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 44.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 43.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 44c | 41.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 55c | 41.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 34c | 40.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 40.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…7899backed No | 64c | 39.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 43c | 34.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 58c | 34.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 65c | 33.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 57c | 30.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed Yes | 40c | 30.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…13babacked Yes | 58c | 30.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 55c | 28.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…ad9ebacked Yes | 44c | 27.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 63c | 23.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…bec0backed Yes | 45c | 23.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 52c | 21.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed No | 71c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 57c | 17.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 14.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.