Champions League · resolved market
Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafc3276cf2ab35b7deb28433786e7fb4eee1ba4c586c5505f8e33b9186c0703a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Yes | 31c | 100,353$30,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,974.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 69c | 43,589$30,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,512.48 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 16c | 18,411$3,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,027.47 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 16c | 12,533$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.92 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 6,133$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.58 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 5,726$4,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.56 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6720…177cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,660$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 17c | 2,441$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.37 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 13c | 1,600$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.95 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…1351backed Yes | 30c | 1,350$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 26c | 1,138$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2a…7418backed Yes | 19c | 1,077$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes | 15c | 1,025$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed Yes | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 77c | 800.26$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.82 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Yes | 18c | 598$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 561.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked No | 71c | 530$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 16c | 434.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 18c | 358.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 32c | 316.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 70c | 314.28$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Yes | 27c | 282.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 27c | 260$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 79 | 24.1%19 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 248.04$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…f90dbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9445backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…f68bbacked Yes | 9c | 188.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 15c | 170.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -9.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 13c | 169.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 28c | 163.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 40%114 W · 171 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked No | 80c | 124.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 15c | 116.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 96 | 24%23 W · 73 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…911dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced5…71c2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…90a8backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 80c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…a5c4backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…01c8backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df8…5332backed Yes | 31c | 61.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…9498backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…2da5backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…dbe3backed No | 77c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 209 | 47.8%100 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-25?Yes won
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.