Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaff32b8266cc00af33d3df7515fd56d485a95c40aafb9ef76279ba7302082404
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.98 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 80c | 1,361$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.21 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…96b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,269$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 19c | 528.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…df99backed No | 79c | 528.72$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…17e3backed Yes | 18c | 326.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 20c | 290$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 230$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked No | 79c | 167.21$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 20c | 150.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 77c | 129.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…c22ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…c3e1backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 20c | 84.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 21c | 82.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…5f28backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…8f41backed Yes | 23c | 51.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…e7c8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…6eacbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 79c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…3162backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…c444backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 79cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…3680backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6d…5fb2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +243.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…eb1cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…d559backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc1…0fbdbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester vs. Chelsea end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23?Yes won
- Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.