Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb05e587b4c19959c9133118d20ca3ab8d576ecdc047437c62ee6b39f068de51a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 2c | 1,291$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 57c | 913.91$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.66 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 52c | 429.19$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.64 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 32c | 363.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 3c | 323.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 42c | 275.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 267.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…e50bbacked Yes | 77c | 259.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 161.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 154.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 148.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 57c | 134.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 124.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 123.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 115.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 49c | 114.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 101.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 16c | 93.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 86.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 69c | 86.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 80.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 49c | 80.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 72.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 69.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 35c | 63.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 53c | 56.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 48c | 55.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 50c | 55.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 73c | 54.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 71c | 48.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 51c | 43.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 53c | 37.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 46c | 36.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 35.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 32.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 41c | 30.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 71c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 50c | 27.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 46c | 23.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 63c | 17.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8344…ed07backed Yes | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +210.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.