MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb106d1edf55aa553eb22cb1aec8df2af17fceb497be9c06d48826d95a4ec5394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked San Francisco Giants | 47c | 6,383$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382.98 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 1,876$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.42 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 1,096$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.68 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 978.71$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.72 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 978.26$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.26 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 601.89$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.02 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 431.7$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 424.5$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.23 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 397.25$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 356.73$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 322.32$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.05 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 272.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 249.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 30c | 249.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 164.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 148.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Colorado Rockies | 33c | 127.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 110.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 97.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 94.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Colorado Rockies | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…4fccbacked Colorado Rockies | 31c | 76.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 73.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Colorado Rockies | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 36.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 25.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 24.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 18.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.