MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41cf05c8bae5468ff6d5ff64c2aaf73253225fddbf2cdd847cd6969dd466b134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 45c | 67,480$30,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,238.1 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 29,978$16,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,585.57 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 8,006$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 6,993$3,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,846.42 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 2,768$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 1,810$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.4 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,378$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.23 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 55c | 1,045$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.03 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 64c | 1,014$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 44c | 926.34$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.75 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 56c | 722$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.32 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 55c | 709.48$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.21 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 70c | 256$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 55c | 191.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 186.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 17c | 181.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 56c | 178.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…f864backed Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Over | 54c | 144.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 22c | 123.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 118.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Over | 19c | 102.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 45c | 95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 57c | 92.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 17c | 82.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 34c | 81.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 76.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 47c | 71.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 55c | 68.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 26c | 61.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Over | 76c | 54.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 47c | 49.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Under | 45c | 44.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 44.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 75c | 42.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 41.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 56c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 80c | 37.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 53c | 34.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 52c | 29.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Under | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…7659backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 55c | 26.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 26.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 53c | 25.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076e…73fabacked Over | 54c | 25.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Over | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 18.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.