Movies · resolved market
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb141a19fb174d5d1d307c8ce838476421c3c88488f3641b173dcbac8f23b2511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,060$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 46c | 606.03$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.38 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 35c | 427.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 17c | 323$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 62c | 319.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.39 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 10c | 301$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 279.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 11c | 189.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 64c | 112.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 39c | 83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…b715backed Yes | 62c | 77.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…99dabacked Yes | 61c | 59.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 51.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f3…f031backed No | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +357.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes | 61c | 22.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "72 Hours" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.