Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1b63fe64ae6f57e1def020936de3e0e0c7d11621e237f5b29152dcfd03585ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 9,807$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.31 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 79c | 8,576$6,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.31 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 77cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 2,577$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.19 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.4 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Under | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 29c | 1,070$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.19 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 72c | 942.18$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.18 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 11c | 699.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 73c | 545.2$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 29c | 541$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 71c | 504.64$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 71c | 403.67$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 72c | 350$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 28c | 273.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 71c | 212$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 181.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 72c | 158$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…bdb2backed Over | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 28c | 118$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 29c | 90.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 23c | 79.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 31c | 79.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 70c | 74.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Over | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 24c | 65.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 71c | 49.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Over | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Over | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 73c | 27.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…2e3cbacked Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.