TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Texans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Bills, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,788 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc109…1ad2backed Bills49c18,783$9,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,170.572931%9 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75e0…fe50backed Texans62c9,053$5,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,467.6810960.6%66 W · 43 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6761…a94fbacked Texans53c8,452$4,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,987.912051.7%62 W · 58 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Bills47c4,255$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.8512843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Texans66c3,140$2,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.418645.7%85 W · 101 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf59e…39cfbacked Texans54c2,832$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.477847.4%37 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Texans58c2,670$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.9322638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Bills50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009754.6%53 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Texans56c1,872$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82744246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Bills36c1,266$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.983540%14 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Bills53c1,200$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.1430446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed Texans52c1,053$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.653860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Bills50c989.84$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.9211346.9%53 W · 60 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Texans48c926.15$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.4614457.6%83 W · 61 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5380…28debacked Bills37c801.42$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.427054.3%38 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb664…8669backed Bills50c700$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd057…ae9fbacked Bills24c625.35$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9411821.2%25 W · 93 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf866…75dcbacked Bills53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Bills47c550$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.55036%18 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc498…24e3backed Texans49c529.59$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1f…8469backed Bills40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Bills47c453.6$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1932438%123 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d0…0c2ebacked Texans65c367.96$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.1113255.3%73 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Texans56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1413040%52 W · 78 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Texans73c345.11$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1813260.6%80 W · 52 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Bills44c301.48$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.652552%13 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842c…2e53backed Bills40c300$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1219842.9%42 W · 56 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9693…07c3backed Bills48c283.33$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13611949.6%59 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed7…537abacked Texans53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.025848.3%28 W · 30 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb7e…d71fbacked Texans77c280.95$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.69450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Bills26c277.66$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5721713.8%30 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Bills18c255.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7452828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Texans60c252.75$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.120246%93 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Bills48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12029356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1130…f920backed Texans52c240.74$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.735457.4%31 W · 23 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Texans51c240.53$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.865433.3%18 W · 36 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Bills37c234.15$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5412343.1%53 W · 70 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Bills26c230.74$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.413428.4%38 W · 96 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd7…c1f3backed Bills50c230$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410052%52 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x81e0…611dbacked Texans62c227.13$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.133452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb080…02e0backed Bills48c222$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Texans53c222$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.345552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5154…ad14backed Texans52c222$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf47…f7bfbacked Bills49c210.2$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0165…b7c5backed Bills49c205$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf489…34d3backed Texans51c205$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-60.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3b…38dbbacked Bills35c201.92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705558.2%32 W · 23 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Bills50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021454.7%117 W · 97 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd244…f24cbacked Bills50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006237.1%23 W · 39 L-8.3wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1bb4…a9bdbacked Bills50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b89…b2aabacked Bills47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Bills49c199.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9938459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x531a…da3cbacked Bills47c191.52$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.933652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f2…d296backed Texans51c180.86$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Texans54c175$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9518051.7%93 W · 87 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4975…c492backed Bills50c173.13$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.33661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe395…2a72backed Bills48c152$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.961637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Bills40c150.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1533328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Texans53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.518650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Texans57c149.34$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1423351.9%121 W · 112 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c4…490ebacked Texans68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0611673.3%85 W · 31 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xceea…8c07backed Texans47c139.63$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.219645.8%44 W · 52 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Bills36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016259.9%97 W · 65 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a05…e4b8backed Bills39c127.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24ac…6df6backed Bills50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019261.5%118 W · 74 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffb8…8027backed Bills18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…efb8backed Bills43c105$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.156058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked Texans53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0232…9391backed Bills52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210256.9%58 W · 44 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28e…d68fbacked Bills30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307467.6%50 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc19a…b660backed Bills53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53244.2%1 W · 23 L-5.8wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-75.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc465…fcfbbacked Bills50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020758%120 W · 87 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x353d…d13bbacked Bills49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x323b…6ed9backed Texans79c97.05$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.38955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b4…951dbacked Bills48c94.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.572725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba41…095cbacked Bills48c87.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5c…b379backed Bills52c87.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.46147.1%1 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.34per pick41cpaid-83.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x675b…822abacked Texans59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a1…3f08backed Bills49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012951.9%67 W · 62 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Texans52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.49259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf631…e20fbacked Texans53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.477361.6%45 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f30…52f3backed Texans78c75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.55977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb299…4a62backed Bills34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2537556.3%211 W · 164 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0328…d834backed Texans51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.39747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8607…4a0bbacked Bills41c69.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4adc…7639backed Bills22c69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.182737%10 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Bills45c67.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012240.2%49 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…92f7backed Texans52c61.54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Bills50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3028436.3%103 W · 181 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae82…3e13backed Bills50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7651…2fa9backed Bills26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5987…c664backed Bills50c58.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.06333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Texans53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.610125.7%26 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Bills49c55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.957338.4%28 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x307c…828dbacked Texans78c54.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.161464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef2…c1edbacked Bills50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254667.4%31 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0db2…048abacked Bills52c49.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.766854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5220…4e88backed Texans51c49.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.039729.9%29 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc9…7e94backed Texans78c47.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Texans48c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.44427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.