Tennis · resolved market
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2034998a98f0dfd422364c6baf405d9fd7be199b251402dbe93d8976127f98c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 4.5of Over 4.5, Under 4.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x559b…4959backed Under 4.5 | 66c | 1,637$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over 4.5 | 34c | 1,176$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.47 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over 4.5 | 34c | 379.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.41 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…b59cbacked Over 4.5 | 46c | 281.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.94 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 4.5 | 55c | 181.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…b252backed Under 4.5 | 69c | 175.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Over 4.5 | 31c | 175.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 263 | 55.1%145 W · 118 L | +36.9wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 4.5 | 27c | 173.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.06 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Over 4.5 | 68c | 100.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under 4.5 | 69c | 81.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under 4.5 | 73c | 67.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under 4.5 | 52c | 62.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…c970backed Over 4.5 | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Over 4.5 | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Under 4.5 | 32c | 54.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Under 4.5 | 61c | 51.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Over 4.5 | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed Over 4.5 | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 4.5 | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under 4.5 | 31c | 48.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over 4.5 | 31c | 47.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…9db6backed Over 4.5 | 39c | 41.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…5ecabacked Over 4.5 | 48c | 41.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over 4.5 | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…2ffbbacked Under 4.5 | 52c | 36.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…05d8backed Under 4.5 | 70c | 27.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under 4.5 | 68c | 25.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over 4.5 | 66c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…2b52backed Over 4.5 | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Under 4.5 | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under 4.5 | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Under 4.5 | 68c | 17.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 4.5this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set 2 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs DjokovicAuger-Aliassime won
- Set 3 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set 4 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs DjokovicAuger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+2.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak DjokovicNovak Djokovic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.