Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2566bf5adaac56ab0e2309d77f8878606d29b88c1ce311336ad8801a9f2b1e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 61c | 3,736$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 2,864$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.52 | 609 | 44.5%271 W · 338 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,232$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.92 | 3,299 | 42.6%1,404 W · 1,895 L | -74.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 63c | 916.11$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.7 | 610 | 29.3%179 W · 431 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 875.91$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.4 | 2,651 | 39.8%1,056 W · 1,595 L | -5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 787.83$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.25 | 979 | 33.4%327 W · 652 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 42c | 443$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470a…881ebacked Over | 44c | 385.59$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 56c | 319.68$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 35c | 254.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 230.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 1,340 | 41%549 W · 791 L | -40.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 27c | 220.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 229 | 69%158 W · 71 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 35c | 186.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +20.9wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 53c | 184.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 39c | 174.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 394 | 44.9%177 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 37c | 134.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 171 | 64.3%110 W · 61 L | +29.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 38c | 128.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +15.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 10c | 120.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 113$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 1,161 | 50.5%586 W · 575 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 58c | 86.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 28c | 77.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 42c | 72.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 42c | 50.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 376 | 36.2%136 W · 240 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 57c | 48.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 42c | 46.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 47c | 42.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 57c | 35.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 57c | 35.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 58c | 30.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 42c | 26.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 52c | 25.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 50c | 20.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus: O/U 3.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus: O/U 0.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus: O/U 2.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus: O/U 4.5Under won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. FC Energie Cottbus: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
- Spread: FC Energie Cottbus (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.