Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb25f1188a987e608839c53cfd6cec80bf498ff02772c09fc40168e5a9ca546ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Yes | 20c | 30,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 80c | 17,710$14,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,542 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 80c | 5,542$4,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.12 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 80c | 1,600$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 80c | 1,309$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.76 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked No | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,028$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 17c | 599.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…6ca4backed Yes | 20c | 501.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…f3dabacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 42c | 474.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 394.45$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 79c | 342.17$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 80c | 299.28$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 5c | 298.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 17c | 265.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 80c | 260$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 80c | 260$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…b3eabacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…f627backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…62dfbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 29c | 205$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 73c | 178.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 22c | 156.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…7eaebacked Yes | 40c | 125.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 66c | 106.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19fc…8357backed Yes | 21c | 93.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Yes | 28c | 84.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 75c | 79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 20c | 63.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bd…28aabacked No | 80c | 63.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 21c | 60.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…276abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…3e90backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…b9debacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 36cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 42.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 56c | 30.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 80c | 30.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed No | 80c | 29.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9124…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-23?Yes won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.