TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,836 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers77c1,678$1,294 inWon+$384.611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked San Francisco Giants22c793.65$178 inLost-$178.122,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants22c585$126 inLost-$1268,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e00…ba80backed Milwaukee Brewers80c463$370 inWon+$92.66947.8%33 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Milwaukee Brewers80c461$369 inWon+$92.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants20c448$90 inLost-$89.65,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed San Francisco Giants22c434.47$96 inLost-$95.5829553.2%157 W · 138 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Milwaukee Brewers76c420.84$320 inWon+$1012,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71bc…7fe4backed San Francisco Giants24c416.67$100 inLost-$1002532%8 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed San Francisco Giants23c298.99$68 inLost-$67.71,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers80c63$50 inWon+$12.672154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants21c50$11 inLost-$10.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Milwaukee Brewers80c28.12$22 inWon+$5.6294549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers74c26$19 inWon+$6.762,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Milwaukee Brewers79c20$16 inWon+$4.21,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Milwaukee Brewers78c16$12 inWon+$3.521,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.