MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c30c2c66e356f1ebcba6bda0a309f1d9e4930c7f1b32ecbb7a8f869fcf0e46d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 4,188$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.04 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 3,792$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.75 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 2,482$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.16 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 2,307$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.47 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 1,791$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.12 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 1,744$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 18c | 1,614$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.8 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 18c | 1,614$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.8 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 1,479$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.83 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 1,425$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 1,412$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 1,212$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 1,120$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.84 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 690.89$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 675.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.02 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 477.83$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.05 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 400.15$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.94 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed Milwaukee Brewers | 28c | 360.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.86 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 214.51$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 204.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 179.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 133.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 101.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 100.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 66.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked San Francisco Giants | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 50.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 42.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 41.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 40.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 40.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…67edbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 37.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…fd85backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 36.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 29.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 28.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…038dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 27.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 26.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 24.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 24.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…891bbacked San Francisco Giants | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…67c9backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Francisco Giants | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…fee9backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d1…fcb1backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.