MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b661724122ab6bac0a4b221bf08b52e53d8ef1c5cf82c28df0ba451c7b6908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 59c | 2,236$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.27 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 1,588$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 1,339$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 1,060$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.39 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 1,018$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 702.29$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 54c | 501.48$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.62 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 61c | 493.74$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.62 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 429.88$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 47c | 407$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.71 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 42c | 397.02$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 41c | 382.77$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 61c | 308.51$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.39 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 41c | 302.23$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 56c | 246.12$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 58c | 240.07$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 56c | 236.14$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…45e5backed Over | 43c | 204.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 59c | 200.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 44c | 150.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 43c | 119.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 59c | 102.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Under | 42c | 101.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 100.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 44c | 99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 58c | 83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 44c | 61.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 48.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 45.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 58c | 44.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 47c | 41.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 40c | 41.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 46c | 40.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 36c | 39.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 55c | 35.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…6dccbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 43c | 24.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 79c | 18.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.