MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d24c4f508a217332efc0dc5e2b8718a8ad924289fdec3dbc919adcd97a9739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 5,254$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.12 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 3,861$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.52 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 2,167$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.07 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 1,903$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.13 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 1,194$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.54 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 994.51$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.49 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 984$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.15 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 898.05$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 47c | 602.63$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.12 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 553.53$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 537.2$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.78 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 514.62$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.77 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 491.07$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 483.54$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.79 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 439.62$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 393.99$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.92 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 372.14$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.68 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 372.14$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.68 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 292.69$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 267.14$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…60aebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 256.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.82 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 225.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 204.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 132.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…df6dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 128.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 24c | 105.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 88.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Francisco Giants | 29c | 80.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 75.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 62.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 60.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 47c | 52.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 52.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 198 | 54.5%108 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 50.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 39.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 34.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…2adbbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 28.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 28.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 27.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…891bbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 17.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…5bd0backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…5b50backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd777…b36cbacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.