MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e73960f978525dec1cc0c596ad2af5b91716d4c3a6b8e96c1b073d31914f811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 7,210$5,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,452.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 5,642$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,445.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 4,973$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,192.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 3,932$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 3,419$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.7 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 1,092$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.76 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 925.96$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.78 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 831.31$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.67 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 672.36$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.55 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 556.46$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.78 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 11c | 321.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.64 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 122.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked San Francisco Giants | 74c | 78.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked San Francisco Giants | 73c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 57.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked San Francisco Giants | 73c | 56.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 56.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked San Francisco Giants | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…da6abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 40.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked San Francisco Giants | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked San Francisco Giants | 73c | 15.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.