MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8226ebfd3caa8cb66b1982de6508236ed9c4de4d3508178bccca234723abba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 8,196$4,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 5,269$3,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,055.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…98dcbacked Under | 32c | 2,991$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.05 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 36c | 1,403$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.67 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 1,134$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.64 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 60c | 1,076$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.55 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 74c | 1,042$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.98 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 986.53$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.9 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 844.03$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 32c | 832$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.24 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 68c | 693.55$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 669.91$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 73c | 629.57$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.19 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 55c | 588.5$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 40c | 551.42$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 55c | 546.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.93 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 75c | 461.06$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 40c | 414.83$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.93 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 67c | 399.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.99 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 68c | 280$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 56c | 269.58$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.89 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 37c | 267.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 225.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 210.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 41c | 178.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 29c | 130.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 77c | 121$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 74c | 118.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 41c | 113$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 42c | 112$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 70c | 108.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 58c | 87.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 74c | 77.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Under | 28c | 75.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 77c | 71.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 77c | 67.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 34c | 59.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 76c | 58.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 37c | 54.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 34c | 45.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 27c | 45.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 77c | 45.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Under | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 48c | 34.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4b…0da9backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 66c | 26.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Over | 74c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 77c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 77c | 25.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 50c | 25.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 50c | 25.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Under | 48c | 23.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.