Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2e870ef1f20c863df94c03f2ad9ce00dad5c6364147864a1067c3f0673ec057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 64c | 10,824$6,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,914.22 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 36c | 9,000$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 39c | 3,182$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…59d0backed No | 79c | 1,638$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 61c | 1,431$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.3 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed No | 66c | 955$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 62c | 923$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.74 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 61c | 821.44$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.36 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…8b6fbacked Yes | 37c | 804.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 63c | 762.94$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.76 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 37c | 715.57$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 30c | 286.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 65c | 235.71$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.21 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked No | 72c | 171.54$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 36c | 140.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 35c | 133.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…ea6cbacked Yes | 37c | 133.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 63c | 119.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed No | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 40c | 100.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 61c | 96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…4055backed Yes | 38c | 89.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…0991backed Yes | 38c | 86.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 60c | 69.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2692backed Yes | 65c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…5bc3backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 66c | 51.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…118dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 60c | 47.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 117 | 72.6%85 W · 32 L | +28.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 62c | 23.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 61c | 22.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 65c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will Como win on 2025-09-21?Yes won
- Will Fiorentina vs. Como end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.