Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Sakamoto (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2ea693550c2544b8dfc73d010dd87c7cc3c3108d08b6bf4a71f4c785a88d866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sakamotoof Medvedev, Sakamoto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,761 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Sakamoto | 26c | 999.9$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.14 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Medvedev | 70c | 940.01$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.25 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sakamoto | 24c | 909.36$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.55 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Medvedev | 74c | 675$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Medvedev | 76c | 657.96$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Medvedev | 74c | 548.26$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.59 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sakamoto | 27c | 526.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.19 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…6f82backed Sakamoto | 66c | 292.07$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Medvedev | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Sakamoto | 29c | 261$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.31 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sakamoto | 24c | 166.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sakamoto | 26c | 138$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Medvedev | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Sakamoto | 26c | 111$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Medvedev | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Sakamoto | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Medvedev | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sakamoto | 25c | 57.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Medvedev | 76c | 52.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Medvedev | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Medvedev | 43c | 25.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…4691backed Medvedev | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c89…e6f7backed Medvedev | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 70.1%47 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Medvedev | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Sakamoto (+1.5)this page
- Miami Open: Rei Sakamoto vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev won
- Rei Sakamoto vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.