Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb389f438f985d1453238626a7092b8a370c3ef598bd3769f659f87ad7ec2df28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,745$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.39 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 63c | 927.76$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.69 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 545.84$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 16c | 545.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 412$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 337.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 272$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 237$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 232.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 22c | 231.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 224$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 36c | 211.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 69c | 205$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 80c | 189.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 189.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 186.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 13c | 171.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 161.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 32c | 160.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 105.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 38c | 104.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 103.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 101.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 100.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 11c | 100.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 99.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…99dabacked Yes | 38c | 94.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 89.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 34c | 84.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 17c | 77.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 21c | 72.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 31c | 63.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 53.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 51.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 31c | 48.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 40.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 72c | 40.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…3c87backed Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 36.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…79bcbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 31.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed No | 77c | 27.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 26.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…698cbacked No | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…a0b1backed No | 71c | 21.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 72c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…f085backed No | 70c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…05b2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaf…61a7backed No | 70c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.