Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x518dee2300b7ab3e77322f9c4def5bc44279b78016a2e327a90bc0eb25bac80b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe353…4efcbacked Yes | 61c | 880$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 2c | 804.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 10c | 575.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 546.82$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 414.17$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 398.17$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.29 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 39c | 385.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 333.22$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 272.2$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 53c | 257$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.21 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 227.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 216.11$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 202.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 37c | 195$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 158.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 156.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 60c | 144$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 135.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 51c | 128.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 122.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…5257backed Yes | 43c | 116.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 37c | 115.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 113.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 110.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…b6e1backed Yes | 41c | 107.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 41c | 105.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…4e99backed Yes | 41c | 104.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…74c4backed Yes | 41c | 100.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 100.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 40c | 91.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 37c | 81.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 81.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 43c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…81cdbacked Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 61c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 41c | 77.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 42c | 75.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 63c | 73.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 44c | 73.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 72.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 44c | 68.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 65.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 63.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 56.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked Yes | 43c | 55.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 54.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 67c | 54.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 60c | 54.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 55c | 54.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 54.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 59c | 53.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 52.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 32c | 52.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 46c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…0ce3backed Yes | 78c | 42.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 42c | 40.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 57c | 39.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 37.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 58c | 36.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 54c | 27.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…a0b1backed No | 57c | 26.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 67c | 25.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 25.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 41c | 24.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 42c | 24.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 72c | 21.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.