TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Team Heretics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked Team Heretics57c9,110$5,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,192.8396048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Natus Vincere43c7,437$3,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,239.098143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Natus Vincere42c5,555$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,221.891,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked Team Heretics33c4,305$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.7314342%60 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x586a…be99backed Team Heretics58c4,302$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4953145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Team Heretics58c3,389$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.4737245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7525…fd3cbacked Team Heretics59c2,560$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005540%22 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Natus Vincere67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Natus Vincere59c1,895$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.0416946.7%79 W · 90 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Natus Vincere67c1,807$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.61,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Natus Vincere43c1,680$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.1746050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Natus Vincere42c1,521$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.261,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Heretics45c1,509$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.221,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Heretics56c1,366$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.861,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x532b…30c1backed Natus Vincere44c1,364$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.649339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Heretics49c1,337$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.032,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2316…9819backed Natus Vincere41c1,180$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6966943.5%30 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Team Heretics57c1,111$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.261,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa08f…745bbacked Natus Vincere48c1,051$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.465255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Team Heretics58c1,035$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.8862451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Natus Vincere43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Team Heretics57c999.99$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere42c990.4$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.432,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Natus Vincere43c799.95$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.9732145.5%146 W · 175 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Heretics60c789.94$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.091,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Natus Vincere42c611.99$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.9532939.8%131 W · 198 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f7…a5e1backed Natus Vincere42c515.6$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.059037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Team Heretics57c505.83$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.3342143.9%185 W · 236 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2851,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d29…65e7backed Natus Vincere42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29018831.4%59 W · 129 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere42c499.97$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.982,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e78…0261backed Team Heretics58c497.62$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.62955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Natus Vincere43c497$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.2920644.7%92 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf19…79bbbacked Natus Vincere43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1216858.9%99 W · 69 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Heretics57c450.4$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7359248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Natus Vincere67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7619147.1%90 W · 101 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cf…99a6backed Natus Vincere43c400$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2282552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Team Heretics57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2286245.2%28 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Natus Vincere41c399.98$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.991,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed28…87cebacked Team Heretics57c397.96$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.843138.7%12 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Natus Vincere40c393.63$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1852045%234 W · 286 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Team Heretics56c386.45$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0328149.8%140 W · 141 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked Team Heretics58c283.89$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.6517555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Team Heretics58c271.58$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.521,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Natus Vincere43c270.65$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6590537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d3…1b1fbacked Team Heretics59c256.1$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.11233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Natus Vincere41c240.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8235442.1%149 W · 205 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Natus Vincere50c240$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1206956.5%39 W · 30 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Natus Vincere53c238.13$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9263944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Natus Vincere43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5626443.6%115 W · 149 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23d8…ad2abacked Team Heretics58c220.69$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Natus Vincere43c215.21$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.671,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Heretics57c213.26$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.482,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed Natus Vincere40c205.79$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.476844.1%30 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Natus Vincere42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11615861.4%97 W · 61 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8feb…63fcbacked Natus Vincere40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12021548.4%104 W · 111 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Team Heretics57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11462649.8%312 W · 314 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Natus Vincere46c173.78$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.61,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed Natus Vincere43c167.44$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4451247.3%242 W · 270 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c2…d39ebacked Team Heretics58c166.66$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.665642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ec…9c6dbacked Natus Vincere43c162.79$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.799459.6%56 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1f…c47bbacked Team Heretics58c139.66$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Team Heretics58c129.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1113030.8%40 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Natus Vincere42c113.74$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.978259.8%49 W · 33 L+11.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Team Heretics58c112.49$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7839555.2%218 W · 177 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Natus Vincere42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team Heretics56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5677741.7%324 W · 453 L-27.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3109…ff47backed Natus Vincere44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5619350.3%97 W · 96 L-14.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Natus Vincere42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5815660.9%95 W · 61 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d45…1c86backed Team Heretics55c99.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5512251.6%63 W · 59 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked Team Heretics11c99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.896253.2%33 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc22a…8259backed Natus Vincere51c98.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6338144.6%170 W · 211 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Natus Vincere43c91.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0613046.2%60 W · 70 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Team Heretics58c90.68$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8944745.2%202 W · 245 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67c9…1ef1backed Team Heretics59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.11442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5252…a7cdbacked Natus Vincere43c81.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.464435.4%228 W · 416 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Natus Vincere43c74.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4212862.5%80 W · 48 L+12.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Team Heretics49c68.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6334849.1%171 W · 177 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03fd…2cd4backed Team Heretics57c66.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.181030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cfd…d27fbacked Natus Vincere43c66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed Natus Vincere42c63.74$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9739652%206 W · 190 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb54c…7f56backed Team Heretics59c63.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.247048.6%34 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd16…502ebacked Natus Vincere42c59.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.523363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+41.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Natus Vincere42c58.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0876953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x026d…8fecbacked Natus Vincere47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.196457.8%37 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4223…42c7backed Natus Vincere72c52.32$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked Natus Vincere43c52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6425240.1%101 W · 151 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ba…b677backed Team Heretics58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd12d…50f9backed Team Heretics34c49.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Team Heretics60c47.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.427143.7%31 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb9…2858backed Natus Vincere43c47.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb0…16e6backed Team Heretics34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed Natus Vincere47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5545841.5%190 W · 268 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Team Heretics53c37.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206061.7%37 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe482…41e4backed Team Heretics58c37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e8…ef2bbacked Natus Vincere43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8864556.6%365 W · 280 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75eb…bb2cbacked Natus Vincere43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.882470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+33.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb862…a00dbacked Team Heretics35c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.781850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Heretics50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560243.4%261 W · 341 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7964…c557backed Team Heretics58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.