TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Team Heretics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$383,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$426,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $383,037 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a86…4998backed Team Heretics22c79,677$17,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,379.9518429.9%55 W · 129 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Team Heretics31c59,209$18,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,548.3546050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Natus Vincere69c32,435$22,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,054.8820546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Natus Vincere70c30,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,000.0215148.3%73 W · 78 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Team Heretics30c29,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,699.9989943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Team Heretics31c25,000$7,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,75096048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b1…6dfcbacked Natus Vincere68c25,000$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,0003363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere71c20,942$14,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,085.481,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Natus Vincere70c20,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0001457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a7…dc87backed Team Heretics30c14,502$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,350.451225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked Team Heretics31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10014342%60 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Natus Vincere69c7,000$4,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,17047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Team Heretics29c6,873$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.1738235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere70c6,535$4,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.31,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Natus Vincere68c6,232$4,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.959554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Natus Vincere70c6,148$4,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.4520036.5%73 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Natus Vincere68c5,717$3,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.2345338%172 W · 281 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere70c5,435$3,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.3785442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Natus Vincere71c4,916$3,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.3218971.4%135 W · 54 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere72c4,884$3,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.861,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Natus Vincere69c3,579$2,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.617439.1%68 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Team Heretics25c3,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.9932234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Natus Vincere69c3,400$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0549255.4%51 W · 41 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Team Heretics29c3,378$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.7317348%83 W · 90 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1047…9036backed Natus Vincere69c3,090$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.653348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd75f…ddcbbacked Natus Vincere70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.993540%14 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Heretics30c2,850$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8551,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Team Heretics32c2,692$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.441,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere68c2,691$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.021,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Team Heretics29c2,666$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.071,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Team Heretics30c2,283$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.7715645.5%71 W · 85 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Team Heretics31c2,124$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.7454934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Heretics30c2,086$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.847533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc466…3f77backed Team Heretics29c2,037$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Natus Vincere68c2,013$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.931,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Natus Vincere71c2,006$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.8462451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed Natus Vincere69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62031953%169 W · 150 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Team Heretics28c1,922$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.0935435.3%125 W · 229 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7525…fd3cbacked Team Heretics31c1,906$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5915540%22 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Natus Vincere71c1,709$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.011,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere75c1,616$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.662,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Natus Vincere67c1,600$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.991,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c59…2ef3backed Team Heretics34c1,550$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b3…b220backed Team Heretics31c1,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46535850.8%182 W · 176 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9d…3c52backed Team Heretics30c1,470$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4411040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c42…b792backed Team Heretics29c1,415$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.48239%32 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb904…3ef8backed Natus Vincere70c1,300$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901675%12 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c09…0d70backed Team Heretics15c1,292$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.156523.1%15 W · 50 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid+22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Natus Vincere67c1,256$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.341,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239e…cb80backed Team Heretics31c1,138$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fd7…58d5backed Team Heretics27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere69c1,111$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.411,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a6…6c3fbacked Team Heretics31c1,096$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.711154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Heretics19c1,077$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.242,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e3…761fbacked Natus Vincere70c1,013$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.8612260.7%74 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4873…e5d8backed Natus Vincere70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Natus Vincere69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489b…a6ecbacked Team Heretics1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea7…192ebacked Team Heretics31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3102951.7%15 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick36cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Natus Vincere69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31067549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked Natus Vincere70c957.14$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.143050%15 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Natus Vincere70c867.02$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.639951.1%204 W · 195 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Natus Vincere70c849.99$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.565063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Team Heretics29c799.94$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9814339.2%56 W · 87 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked Team Heretics27c795.45$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.824112.2%5 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa120…4575backed Natus Vincere70c784.43$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.33540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Heretics27c775.54$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.331,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Team Heretics32c740.25$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.882,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Natus Vincere69c733.25$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.3120557.1%117 W · 88 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Natus Vincere71c704.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2315857.6%91 W · 67 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa08f…745bbacked Natus Vincere71c704.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.235255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd438…735bbacked Team Heretics30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b57…8cc0backed Natus Vincere70c632.59$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.781435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Team Heretics35c613.7$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5724235.5%86 W · 156 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Natus Vincere70c600$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18089050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee1…3e22backed Natus Vincere70c599.99$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1805330.2%16 W · 37 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Natus Vincere73c592$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5663742.7%272 W · 365 L-2.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Natus Vincere70c571.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.4338157.5%219 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5cb…6303backed Team Heretics18c512.27$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Natus Vincere69c500.69$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2196054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed Natus Vincere69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15518553%98 W · 87 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Natus Vincere69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15566059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d6d…c149backed Team Heretics31c483.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Natus Vincere69c478.26$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.2623253.4%124 W · 108 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Team Heretics11c473.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0330621.2%65 W · 241 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Team Heretics30c456$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1669741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Natus Vincere69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7846560%279 W · 186 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c8…2313backed Natus Vincere69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.783461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ce1…f3aabacked Team Heretics30c427.96$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d4…f843backed Team Heretics30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208344.6%37 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed Natus Vincere69c399.98$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9925065.6%164 W · 86 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Natus Vincere73c398.99$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.921,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Natus Vincere69c398.25$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.931,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Heretics28c374.14$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1797854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Team Heretics31c358.4$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.16552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Natus Vincere70c343.81$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5728149.8%140 W · 141 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1602…fbb0backed Team Heretics30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001978.9%15 W · 4 L+6.3wins+0.33per pick46cpaid+114.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Team Heretics32c329.17$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10517436.2%63 W · 111 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Team Heretics31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012251.6%63 W · 59 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Natus Vincere69c318.84$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8427050.7%137 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.