Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3c365166f7165ac86275989e4d7cfa999b083adebca55b265604e50ed26550a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,910$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 782.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 677.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 13c | 503$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 258$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked No | 80c | 258$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 223.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 190.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 18c | 185.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 13c | 177.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 158.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 19c | 145.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 14c | 133.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked Yes | 14c | 129.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 28c | 126.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 122.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 121.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 112.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 14c | 107.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 13c | 107.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 91.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 91.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 90.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 16c | 88.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 24c | 80.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…de4abacked Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 16c | 75.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 74.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 76c | 66.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 62.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…290dbacked Yes | 20c | 58.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 58.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ab…b402backed Yes | 24c | 41.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 40.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 79c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 37.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 34c | 35.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed No | 73c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked No | 77c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…61b7backed No | 76c | 23.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…6cefbacked No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.