Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3c697bdd1432fb1862681a890f729869240d7b12b2d5e6207400b73fbcca197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 386.88$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 50c | 351.76$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.62 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 336.55$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.11 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 45c | 229$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 215$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 52c | 211.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.41 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 49c | 200.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 42c | 193$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 185.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 75c | 172.45$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 153.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 40c | 130.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 54c | 119.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 112$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 111.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 92.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 47c | 81.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 238 | 47.9%114 W · 124 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 74.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 72.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 22c | 70.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 64.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 56c | 61.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 44c | 60.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 59.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…9082backed Yes | 70c | 57.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 54.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 50.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 44.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 41.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 28c | 41.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 40.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 49c | 37.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 53c | 36.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Yes | 60c | 33.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 52c | 32.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 42c | 32.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 51c | 26.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 22.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 46c | 21.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc402…51b3backed Yes | 74c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 70c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 413 | 12.3%51 W · 362 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 18.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.