Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93e9295c830384e92906154d1a9cb030fcae4f133583e023c6ab643cd942f4c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 44c | 3,309$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.47 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 951.03$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.68 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 612.5$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.62 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 510$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.77 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 438.89$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 55c | 361.27$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 54c | 306.37$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.37 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 199.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 56c | 196.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 47c | 188.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 184.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 49c | 160.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 14c | 138.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 108$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 108$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 103$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 100.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 98.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 51c | 95.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 90.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 83.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 81.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 41c | 70.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 41c | 68.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 53c | 65.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 54c | 61.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 50c | 61.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 56c | 58.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 53.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 38c | 52.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 50.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 49.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 48.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 22c | 46.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 46c | 46.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 45.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 40c | 44.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 70c | 43.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 51c | 41.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 39.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 312 | 38.1%119 W · 193 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 35.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 52c | 34.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 47c | 32.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 31.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed Yes | 53c | 31.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 56c | 29.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 52c | 28.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 27.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 47c | 26.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 24.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1ae7backed No | 59c | 20.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 51c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.