Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3d5d0894da9a6438744854fb9a4cb0b6efa8ff0e8805adf8b4eb8c7f4f4344b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…d061backed Up | 42c | 9,803$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,703.21 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 51c | 6,385$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,246.91 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 57c | 3,570$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.33 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e6…cc3abacked Down | 69c | 3,034$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…e88ebacked Down | 60c | 3,007$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Down | 12c | 2,894$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.72 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 61c | 1,616$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.18 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 2c | 1,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 64c | 1,375$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.02 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 35c | 1,327$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.71 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Up | 28c | 968$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.13 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 59c | 959.92$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.14 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Up | 56c | 717.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.57 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Down | 72c | 670.4$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 65cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 60c | 529.2$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.23 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Down | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Down | 60c | 461.17$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.7 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 39c | 404.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.46 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 54c | 401.78$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.04 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Down | 75c | 309.26$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.34 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 48c | 273.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.41 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Up | 25c | 234$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 58c | 212.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…c2cbbacked Down | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…8022backed Up | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 49c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…d8b4backed Down | 29c | 190.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Down | 53c | 187$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Down | 20c | 183.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 56c | 181.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Up | 36c | 174.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…3011backed Up | 35c | 117$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 24c | 98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…a087backed Up | 56c | 82.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Up | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf47…9981backed Down | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…7b0abacked Down | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…4035backed Down | 58c | 53.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…0f86backed Up | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…cae0backed Down | 56c | 45.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 48c | 41.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Up | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Up | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…e990backed Down | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Up | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Down | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Up | 56c | 28.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed Down | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…9249backed Up | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Down | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…8deabacked Down | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.