TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
August Holmgrenof Matej Dodig, August Holmgren
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,088 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5aa9…febebacked Matej Dodig6c13,303$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.91,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed August Holmgren74c7,480$5,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.874,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Matej Dodig20c5,387$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.878,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed August Holmgren65c3,646$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.1417359.5%103 W · 70 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01fa…cea7backed Matej Dodig33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99032735.5%116 W · 211 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked August Holmgren77c2,955$2,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.81,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Matej Dodig27c1,191$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.395,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Matej Dodig28c1,155$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.292,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed August Holmgren56c1,069$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.281,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Matej Dodig26c1,040$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.0728835.1%101 W · 187 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Matej Dodig46c1,015$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.462,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Matej Dodig35c973.26$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.921,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa99…f152backed August Holmgren68c887.14$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1473458.6%430 W · 304 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Matej Dodig36c815.68$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.77,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Matej Dodig31c778.66$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.288,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Matej Dodig29c753.68$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.169,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9266…8f3cbacked Matej Dodig47c742.82$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.0325556.1%143 W · 112 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed August Holmgren68c733.73$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.514,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked August Holmgren56c626.23$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.877241.7%30 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed August Holmgren60c588.19$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.2758639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed August Holmgren65c565.57$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.792,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Matej Dodig31c544.17$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.741,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52de…5999backed Matej Dodig50c541.72$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.86580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matej Dodig35c509.23$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.48,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Matej Dodig46c499.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23080938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fce…0ccebacked August Holmgren54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed August Holmgren76c497$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.961,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed August Holmgren68c463.08$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.43,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed August Holmgren54c462.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.9660158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0309…3e4dbacked August Holmgren71c432.27$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.361050%5 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Matej Dodig46c374.88$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.382,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Matej Dodig27c372$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.121,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc6f…959abacked August Holmgren72c366.43$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.64955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce5…a07fbacked Matej Dodig41c365.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15041850%209 W · 209 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed August Holmgren48c355.43$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.826,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked August Holmgren77c324.68$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6833163.7%211 W · 120 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Matej Dodig42c321.69$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.731,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Matej Dodig8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2445235.8%162 W · 290 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked August Holmgren61c260.17$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.254,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Matej Dodig45c255.96$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1853843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d93…0eccbacked Matej Dodig43c240.3$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.923732.4%12 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed August Holmgren68c235.6$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6356070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Matej Dodig33c223.59$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.852,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked August Holmgren54c213.64$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.253,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95a3…cc1bbacked Matej Dodig48c210.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014245.8%65 W · 77 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked August Holmgren72c208.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3337071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6e…542dbacked August Holmgren58c194.1$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.219756.3%111 W · 86 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked August Holmgren69c193.24$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.976,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Matej Dodig45c189.5$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.041,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Matej Dodig39c187.21$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.084,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked August Holmgren73c183.25$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0133751.9%175 W · 162 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed August Holmgren59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4942042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed August Holmgren80c162.5$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.570456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ff…3214backed Matej Dodig25c158$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.538422.4%86 W · 298 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked August Holmgren51c156.15$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.151,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57fe…13c1backed Matej Dodig41c154.2$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2210044%44 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed August Holmgren75c147.3$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.823,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Matej Dodig45c139.17$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.291,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Matej Dodig43c134$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5843067%288 W · 142 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3d…e042backed August Holmgren56c132.14$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.141478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+42.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked August Holmgren57c126.74$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2432935%115 W · 214 L-1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Matej Dodig40c122.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.921,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7f…7d7fbacked August Holmgren52c120.56$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.312462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Matej Dodig24c106.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.816,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked August Holmgren52c105.52$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6511,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Matej Dodig45c102.74$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.212,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Matej Dodig45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8b…a0cabacked Matej Dodig25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512659.5%75 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed August Holmgren71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291,09452.4%573 W · 521 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3172…e940backed Matej Dodig36c96.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511747.9%56 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca2…1d74backed Matej Dodig29c95.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.848643%37 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked August Holmgren68c92.28$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.651,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Matej Dodig20c91.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.481,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed August Holmgren79c86.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2792674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…bb1dbacked August Holmgren54c83.09$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0916446.3%76 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc774…f218backed August Holmgren78c80.13$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6335753.8%192 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Matej Dodig42c76.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.224,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Matej Dodig48c76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4825245.2%114 W · 138 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked August Holmgren55c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7549142.8%210 W · 281 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked August Holmgren54c71.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.052,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a19…1848backed August Holmgren71c68.8$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ced…9753backed Matej Dodig45c65.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.63834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed August Holmgren56c65.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.628035%28 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked Matej Dodig46c63.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0515346.4%71 W · 82 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed August Holmgren58c61.25$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4267838.3%260 W · 418 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed August Holmgren61c58.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5291755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Matej Dodig33c57.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Matej Dodig40c56.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed August Holmgren56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5788560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a37…4daebacked Matej Dodig45c52.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7213451.5%69 W · 65 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Matej Dodig43c50.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8842350.8%215 W · 208 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked August Holmgren49c47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.974,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Matej Dodig45c46.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.861,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf676…9a00backed August Holmgren54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.320158.7%118 W · 83 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked August Holmgren52c45.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.712,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked August Holmgren68c44.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5517460.3%105 W · 69 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed August Holmgren62c44.78$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0719051.1%97 W · 93 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5151…fba8backed August Holmgren61c44.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3238074.5%283 W · 97 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed August Holmgren71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6068…3342backed August Holmgren55c41.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.821844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+75.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.