Dota2 · resolved market
Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3f1834bcded8dd6ffaf38b863add8654a16c3ab69123ce05e7d5cd3df4e4d77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Yes | 20c | 13,326$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,725.59 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 70c | 6,278$4,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,421.19 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 77c | 5,429$4,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,180.41 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 80c | 4,103$3,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.02 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 79c | 1,010$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.73 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 67c | 830.82$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.94 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…71a1backed Yes | 32c | 750$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.15 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 295.33$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 42c | 258.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Yes | 19c | 255.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.5 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 60c | 254.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6f…958ebacked Yes | 33c | 242.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Yes | 22c | 236.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.58 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Yes | 78c | 230.15$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked No | 77c | 221.02$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Yes | 19c | 208.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.91 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 20c | 170$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 19c | 168.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Yes | 41c | 120.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 43c | 115.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…eb0fbacked Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +17.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 104.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked No | 53c | 93.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 55c | 77.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 28c | 70.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Yes | 42c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked No | 48c | 61.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 43c | 57.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 58c | 47.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed No | 30c | 34.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed No | 38c | 28.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Yes | 39c | 28.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 26.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?this page
- Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid: Draw (1-1)?No won
- Team Liquid to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.